Analyzing the impacts of climate change on ozone andparticulate matter with tracer species, process analysis, andmultiple regional climate scenarios

摘要

This paper describes the application of tracer species and processanalysis to study the simulated effects of regional climate change on airquality over the eastern United States. The coupled modeling systemutilized in this study consists of the NASA Goddard Institute for SpaceStudies General Circulation Model (GISS-GCM), Fifth GenerationPennsylvania State University/National Center for AtmosphericResearch Mesoscale Model (MM5), Sparse Matrix Operator KernalEmissions (SMOKE) modeling system, and the US EnvironmentalProtection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ)model. Results show that climate change for the 2050s is expected tocause an increase in summertime average concentrations for a varietyof primary and secondary pollutants. Through the use of CO-likechemically inert tracer species it is found that changes in physical para-meters such as boundary layer ventilation and stagnation cause anincrease in primary pollutant concentrations, but that actual CO con-centrations show an even larger increase that points to a contributionfrom increased chemical reaction as well.