Global heat wave hazards, considering the humidity effects under greenhouse gas emission scenarios

摘要

In this paper, the wet-bulb globe temperature (W), considering both temperature and humidity effects, was used as a heat index to quantify the number of annual total heat wave days (HWDs). Changes in surface air temperature, relative humidity, W, and the total number of HWDs in a year were analyzed using multi-model simulations for the reference period (1986-2005) and different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Our results suggest that HWDs per year will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, and by 2086-2095, approximately one-half of the land area of the earth could be exposed to heat waves for more than 100 days in a year, under RCP 8.5. At the same air temperature, there should be more focus on tropical countries exposed to the greatest increases in HWDs in the future.