Monte Carlo Simulation of Micro Traffic with Unpredictable Disturbance

摘要

Monte Carlo simulation of micro traffic with unpredictable disturbance is conducted for the realistic situation in Sidoarjo hot mudflow disaster. We concern to the main artery road very close to high dike of disaster. This road is main traffic connection with surrounding areas of disaster and traffic density over there is very high.The mud volcano remains with a high flow rates. The important matter when the mud containment walls broken and the mudflows on the road is how does the vehicle can be evacuated from the disaster occurred areas through suffered roads. This study presents evacuation simulation of vehicles in surrounding affected road using agent-based modeling. We observe the time required for evacuation and the number of victim toward the traffic condition (probability of vehicle density) and the driving behavior (probability of lane changing). Both of them are evaluated and compared each other with/without agent.