THE APPLICATION OF COMBINED FORECAST METHOD IN PREDICTING FREIGHT VOLUME OF RAILWAY

摘要

With the development of the forecasting technology, combined forecast method becomes one focus of the research and has been used successfully in many fields, especially in the field of port throughput forecasting. However, the combined forecast method has seldom been applied to the railway freight volume prediction. In this paper, Three-Time Exponential and GM(1,1) forecasting method are combined to predict railway freight volume. Minimum weighted sum of the absolute value of the error is adopted as the optimal rule. Compared with the two single methods, this composite model has substantially improved the forecast accuracy.