Job Impacts in the Coal Industry: What Can We Expect from the Natural Gas Boom and Environmental Regulations?

摘要

Until recently, coal provided nearly half of the electricity generated in the United States. Plummeting natural gas prices combined with a threatening regulatory climate has caused the decline of coal as the primary domestic energy source. In 2012, generation from coal fell below 40 percent - for the first time since the government began collecting data in 1949. Electric utilities are retiring or idling coal units, repowering with natural gas, and dispatching their existing gas units more. The change has been spurned by hefty retrofit costs to comply with a suite of environmental regulations and historically low natural gas prices. Proposed new regulations on carbon emissions could effectively preclude the ability to permit new coal units. This paper presents an overview of recent and projected changes to the coal-fired generating fleet. How these changes translate to employment impacts is discussed, including the relationship between direct, indirect, and induced job losses; community impacts; and distributive effects. A survey of recent jobs impact studies related to the coal-fired industry is examined, and shows how differences in input data and assumptions produce conflicting employment results. Most of these studies focused on the impacts of environmental regulations, and did not consider displacement of coal power by natural gas generation or the effects on related business sectors, such as coal combustion products recycling. As a result, knowledge gaps remain, which are identified. Potential policy and technological game changers are discussed in light of the 2012 election results.