SIMULATION MODEL TO PREDICT PROJECT TIME AND COST PERFORMANCE OF INCENTIVE/DISINCENTIVE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

摘要

In highway construction, Incentive/Disincentive (I/D) contracting provisions have been widely used to motivate the contractor for early completion of roadway construction in the United States. Although I/D provisions are one of the owner's useful management tools, there is no systematic decision support system for the selection of I/D projects. This paper presents a project time and cost performance simulation model to assist project planners and managers by providing a complete picture during the I/D contracting decision-making process of possible performance outcomes with probabilities based on historical data. This study was performed by collecting transportation construction project data. The collected project data from the Florida Department of Transportation were evaluated using time and cost performance indices and then statistical data analysis was performed to identify important factors that influence construction project time performance. Using Monte Carlo simulation procedures, this study demonstrated a methodology for developing an I/D project time and cost performance prediction model. User-friendly visual interfaces were developed to perform the simulation and report results using Visual Basic Application programming. The developed model was validated using additional cases of transportation construction projects.