Forest Area and Land Use Change in Pakistan: A System Dynamics Approach

摘要

Deforestation is a global environmental problem caused by a wide range of drivers which may vary from one region to another. Pakistan with low area under forest is facing very high level of deforestation. The present research aims at incorporating the selected drivers of deforestation in to systems thinking to find out the effects of these factors on forest area of the country. These selected variables; population growth, timber and firewood production, forest land use conversion to agriculture and construction, and forest area affected by forest fires have been studied from 1990 to 2010. The results show that, without interventions, deforestation is projected to increase further, thus slowing down the growth of forest area. The effects of forest production on deforestation are not evident. The policy scenarios developed through system dynamics show that afforestation and regeneration efforts can be more effective than population control and production control policies. As shown in one of the system dynamics scenarios, to achieve national forest regeneration goals, the Pakistani government should create a multi-dimensional policy covering land use policy, forest production control, population control and forest growth policy through afforestation and regeneration. The model results are validated and found consistent with the national forest area.