Might Twenty Models Cover Ninety Percent of All Situations Managers Encounter?

摘要

Jay Forrester's call for a set of 'general, transferable computerized cases' to cover most managerial situations is one of the great tasks standing before the field of system dynamics. A library of widely applicable cases, if accompanied by reliable guidelines for when to apply them, would be a boon to research, teaching, and management. Researchers could use these cases as strong null models when evaluating new situations and new theories (Bell 2001). Teachers could use the most widely applicable cases for a general management course or could use a thematic subset of the cases for specialized courses. Managers could approach a new situation by selecting then tailoring the model or models most likely to shed light on that situation. This paper discusses progress that has been made toward this library of general and transferable models, and describes a research project under way to both evaluate models for the library and produce the application guidelines needed for the library to fulfill its promise.