Investigation of Consumer Preference and Dynamic Effects in the Emerging US Market for New Vehicle Energy Technologies using Longitudinal Consumer Survey Data

摘要

This paper reviews concepts from existing modelling approaches developed in the context of consumer demand for new conventional vehicles, and considers how these may be expanded and extended to incorporate consumer adoption processes for new energy technologies. A motivation for the work is access to data from a large-scale longitudinal survey of new vehicle buyers containing a substantial amount of (revealed preference) data on purchases of recently introduced plug-in vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs), as well as data on consumer attitudes and other factors. Initial results from a first-stage discrete choice model for the entire US new vehicle market that directly incorporates plug-in purchases are presented, along with consideration of how the data can be used to support more advanced forms of choice modelling.