The purpose of this paper is to explore future trends in electric vehicle (EV) costs and adoption. An importantfeature of the Technology Case in Canada’s Energy Future 2018 (EF2018) was the increasing rate of adoption ofEvs, which climbs to over 60% of new vehicles sold by 2040. This is in part driven by the assumption that thecost of electric vehicles will continue to fall over the coming years to the point where they are cost competitivewith internal combustion engine vehicles. These falling costs largely depend on the advancement of batterytechnology which has thus far made purchasing an EV a more expensive option. While costs have significantlyfallen and technology has improved over time there are still some hurdles that may slow adoption. These includethe reliance on minerals such as cobalt in battery production which is subject to geopolitical risk and large pricefluctuations. Through a rigorous analysis of these risks we have created a number of cost breakdowns for varioustechnologies that will be needed to achieve the projections outlined in EF2018.
展开▼
