Assessment of Probabilities of Computer Attacks Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process: Method for Calculating the Pairwise Comparison Matrixs Based on Statistical Information

摘要

The task of obtaining adequate assess of the threat`s probability and risks of information security (IS), as well as forecasting the vectors of likely attacks of hackers, using new methods, has become more relevant in connection with the active penetration of information technologies in organizations. The article substantiates a new method for forecasting the probability of computer attacks, determining the causes of hacker priorities. Mathematic base of method is analitic hierarchy process with dynamic priorities and preferences method. In the article, we give justification the ability of using statistical data to form the matrix of pairwise comparisons (MPC). Methodology of choosing statistical data and forming MPC based on them are defined. The key attack criteria reasonable selection has been made for the practical use of this method. The method`s advantages and limitations was identified by comparative analysis of the proposed and well-known methods for forecasting the probabilities of attacks. Assess of the probability of computer attacks in credit and financial sector organizations in 2019 are obtained.