Following strong growth in 2015, US demand for gasoline has recovered to levels not seen since before the recession. Demand is back over 9 million b/d and continues to account for nearly half of the US total petroleum demand, making the outlook for this product pivotal to refiners. 1. Although gasoline demand is likely to match its 2007 peak in 2016, Wood Mackenzie expects demand to decline over the long term as several factors come into play. The paper explains this forecast by breaking it down into the outlook for; 1.1 distance travelled, taking into account the economic outlook as well as demographic shifts, and 1.2 fuel efficiency of the light vehicle fleet in light of government CAFE standards. 2. Furthermore, the paper considers risks to the gasoline forecast such as: 2.1 the potential disconnect between consumer preference and government fuel efficiency targets, as seen by the shift in auto sales in 2015, 2.2 possible changes in policy, including the government's upcoming mid-term review of fuel efficiency standards, and 2.3 the role of technology breakthrough (e.g. the electric vehicle effect) and how this could impact gasoline demand.
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