Genetic Ensemble (G-Ensemble) for Meteorological Prediction Enhancement

摘要

The need for reliable predictions in environmental modelling is long known. Particularly, the predicted weather and meteorological information about the future atmospheric state is crucial and necessary for almost all other areas of environmental modelling. Additionally, right decisions to prevent damages and save lives could be taken depending on a reliable meteorological prediction process. Lack and uncertainty of input data and parameters constitute the main source of errors for most of these models. In recent years, evolutionary optimisation methods have become popular to solve the input parameter problem of environmental models. We propose a new prediction scheme that uses a Genetic Algorithm for parameter estimation in Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP) to enhance prediction results. The new approach is called Genetic Ensemble (G-Ensemble) and it has been tested using historical data of a well known weather catastrophe: Hurricane Katrina that occurred in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico. Obtained results provide significant improvements in weather prediction.