A Study for the Operating Case of Stationery Industries to Modeling Sales Forecasting Performance

摘要

Traditional stationery industries base their sales forecasting by personal and subjective judgments, and such judgment depends heavily on manager's experiences, historical sales data, and growth rate of expectancy; however, the forecasting result is often inaccurate and has severely disrupted corporate operating performance and development in the future. The purpose of the research is to establish a sales forecasting model for stationery industries through objective analysis, based on the practical sales data of different products and collected from a leading local stationery manufacturer in Taiwan. The research mainly yields one finding and management implication from the empirical results: The declining product line can be well performed by exponential smoothing method.