The relationship between cigarette sales and the economy in Guizhou province

摘要

The close relationship exists between cigarette sales and economic factors, and the growing trend of economic indicators and tobacco sales could cause direct statistical analysis to reach spurious regression. This study uses the cigarette sales in Guizhou province as the research object. The economic and consumer factors are first classified and then the average price and growth rates calculated through existing economic and cigarette sales data. The interrelation between sales and growth factors are analyzed. Finally, the causal relationship between cigarette sales and economic factors are verified through Granger's causality test. Cigarette sales are highly correlated with the GDP, consumption population structure, and consumer price index. Results provide effective reference for decision-making for the National Tobacco Administration.