ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING MODAL CHOICE IN INLAND TRANSPORT OF INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER

摘要

On November 26, 2009, the Chinese government announced that by 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) per unit of GDP will be reduced by 40-45% from the 2005 level. In order to meet this target, it is necessary for the transport sector to substantially contribute to the reduction of CDE. So a strong focus on policies in a modal shift from road to rail for inland transport of international container (ITOIC) should be implemented, which is believed as a promising means to alleviate the ever increasing pressure of road freight transports on CDE. And the basic work is to identify what major factors will significantly influence the modal choice in ITOIC. The paper is aim to answer this question for simplifying the modal choice analysis. The influence factor analysis is conducted based on Revealed Preference/Stated Preference (RP/SP) Survey for Yiwu international container shippers. Considering the technology economic characteristic of road and rail and cargo features of international container, the factors influencing modal choice are analyzed and selected using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method with Statistic Package for Social Science (SPSS). In the process, the primary-secondary and association relationship of inter-factors is also distinguished, which provide a basis for further quantitative analysis and decision making. The visual and succinct selected factors can rationally and effectively reflect the modal choice for the international container shippers. Meanwhile, it is the foundation of developing a reasonable policy to prompt the modal shift from road to rail for ITOIC.