基于非集计模型的国际集装箱内陆运输链竞争力分析

摘要

Based on the analysis of factors influencing the competitiveness of inland transport chain of international container, this paper selects customs clearance convenience, liner density, total transport cost, total transport time, and reliability of transport time as characteristic variables of alternative, and a competitive model of inland transport chain of international container is established on the basis of Probit model. Then the parameters are estimated by use of Limdep software according to RP/SP survey data of Yiwu international container shipper. The results show that the Probit model outperforms the Logit model, and the Probit model is consistent with the reality and has a more accuracy and better predictability. Finally, some suggestions that promote the competitiveness of rail-based transport chain are put forward.%在分析内陆段运输链竞争力影响因素的基础上,选取通关便利性、班轮密度、运输链总费用、运输链总时间及运输时间可靠性作为特性变量,构建了基于Probit的国际集装箱内陆运输链竞争力模型,并利用义乌国际集装箱托运人RP/SP调查数据,借助Limdep软件,对模型参数进行了估计.研究结果表明,Probit模型优于Logit模型,且该模型各参数估计值与实际情况相符,模型精度较高,预测准确性较好.最后提出了提高铁路运输链竞争力的对策建议.