Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: A hybrid choice modelling approach

摘要

The role of cycling in promoting better transport, health, social and environmental outcomes is well documented. However, the quantification of these benefits is not well established. This is mainly due to a lack of rigorous methodologies and guidelines available to appraise cycling initiatives, and practical difficulties in estimating cycling demand. In this paper we attempt to address this need by developing predictive models of cycle demand, relative to other transport modes, that capture not only the impacts of observed characteristics such as age and travel time but also the role of attitudes and perceptions. Using data from a stated preference survey, we estimate a hybrid choice model for cycle usethat incorporates the role of attitudes towards cycling, perceptions of the image associated with cycling, and the stress arising from safety concerns. Model results indicate that the latentattitudes and perceptions explain an important part of the non-observable utility in a simple multinomial logit choice model. We also demonstrate policy analysis using the hybrid choice model, which allows comparisons of ‘hard’ policies such as the provision of parking facilitiesagainst ‘soft’ measures such as cycle promotion schemes.