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TESTING AND QUALIFICATION OF CONFIDENCE IN STATISTICAL PROCEDURES

机译:统计程序中的信心测试和资格

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This paper discusses a framework for designing artificial test problems, evaluation criteria, and two of the benchmark tests developed under a research project initiated by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to investigate the approaches for qualification of tolerance limit methods and algorithms proposed for application in optimization of CANDU regional/neutron overpower protection trip setpoints for aged conditions. A significant component of this investigation has been the development of a series of benchmark problems of gradually increased complexity, from simple "theoretical" problems up to complex problems closer to the real application. The first benchmark problem discussed in this paper is a simplified scalar problem which does not involve extremal, maximum or minimum, operations, typically encountered in the real applications. The second benchmark is a high dimensional, but still simple, problem for statistical inference of maximum channel power during normal operation. Bayesian algorithms have been developed for each benchmark problem to provide an independent way of constructing tolerance limits from the same data and allow assessing how well different methods make use of those data and, depending on the type of application, evaluating what the level of "conservatism" is. The Bayesian method is not, however, used as a reference method, or "gold" standard, but simply as an independent review method. The approach and the tests developed can be used as a starting point for developing a generic suite (generic in the sense of potentially applying whatever the proposed statistical method) of empirical studies, with clear criteria for passing those tests. Some lessons learned, in particular concerning the need to assure the completeness of the description of the application and the role of completeness of input information, are also discussed. It is concluded that a formal process which includes extended and detailed benchmark tests, but targeted to the context of the particular application and aimed at identifying the domain of validity of the proposed tolerance limit method and algorithm, might provide the necessary confidence in the proposed statistical procedure. The Ontario Power Generation, Bruce Power and AMEC-NSS have supported this work and contributed to the development and execution of the test cases. Their statistical method and results are not, however, discussed in this paper.
机译:本文讨论了设计人工测试问题,评估标准和在加拿大核安全委员会发起的研究项目中开发的两项基准测试框架,以调查拟议申请的公差限制方法和算法的资格方法Candu Regional / Neutron Reflow Protection Protect Persits为老年条件。这项调查的重要组成部分一直是发展一系列基准问题逐渐增加的复杂性,从简单的“理论”问题达到了复杂的问题,更接近真正的应用。本文讨论的第一个基准问题是一种简化的标量问题,它不涉及通常在真实应用中遇到的极值,最大值或最小操作。第二个基准是一种高维度,但仍然简单,对于正常操作期间最大信道功率的统计推断问题。已经为每个基准问题开发了贝叶斯算法,以提供从相同数据构建公差限制的独立方式,并允许评估不同方法如何利用这些数据,具体取决于应用类型,评估“保守主义的水平” “ 是。然而,贝叶斯方法不是用作参考方法或“金”标准,而是作为一个独立的审查方法。该方法和测试的方法可以用作开发通用套件的起点(普遍存在的潜在应用的统计方法)的经验研究,具有清除这些测试的明确标准。还讨论了一些经验教训,特别是关于确保应用程序描述的完整性以及输入信息的完整性的作用,但也就是说。结论是,包括扩展和详细的基准测试的正式过程,但针对特定应用的背景,并旨在识别拟议的公差限制方法和算法的有效性领域,可能会对提议的统计数据提供必要的信心程序。安大略省发电,布鲁斯权力和AMEC-NSS支持这项工作,并促进了测试用例的开发和执行。然而,本文讨论了它们的统计方法和结果。

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