Optimal design on policies of industrial eco-economic system in China under the constraint of energy saving and carbon emission

摘要

With the purpose of resolving the contradiction between economic growth and environmental deterioration, this paper, using carbon emission as an example, analyzes the critical factors in current industry policies, builds a model for system dynamics, simulates the impacts of different policies on the economy, energy and environment under various scenarios, and gives suggestions on the optimal design of policies. It is shown that: (I) the adjustment of industrial structure and energy taxation according to prices are helpful in delaying the economic recession, but energy taxation according to quantity and the carbon tax within a short period will inhibit the economic growth. (II) Only the adjustment of energy structure has a significant impact on energy intensity. (III) The implementation of carbon tax and the adjustment of energy structure are the most significant two factors in changing carbon intensity, and the latter is the best option because of no significant negative effect in economy. But, carbon tax should be carried out gradually in the long run. (IV) The advantage of human capital is shown in the comparison of investment structure, which provides a basis direction for investment in the future. (V) The transformation of energy tax collection modes plays its regulatory role in rationally exploiting energy and protecting environment.