Simulating Species Dominance in Mixed Mangrove Forests Considering Species-Specific Responses to Shading, Salinity, and Inundation Frequency

摘要

To ensure that mangrove forest conservation efforts are successful, simulation models of mangrove forests are developed to forecast outcomes of different environmental scenarios. This paper presents MaDS (Mangrove species Dominance Simulator), an agent-based model that simulates the structures of mixed mangrove forest stands by considering specific responses of mangrove species to shading, salinity, and inundation frequencies. By simulating certain inundation and salinity conditions in a 50 m × 50 m plot, the model forecasts the resulting dominance of different mangrove species. The model uses different species-specific parameters for differentiating responses to environmental factors. The model was validated by conducting an experiment where different test sites in Katunggan It-Ibajay (KII) Eco-park, Aklan, Philippines were simulated given actual site salinity and inundation frequency values to see if simulated species dominance matched actual site species dominance. The validation experiment showed simulated dominant species matched with dominant species in the sites given that different groups of species are tested. An experiment on species abundance at different combinations of salinity and inundation frequency values was also conducted. Results of the simulations imply that observed zonation in mangrove forests is not only caused by the environmental conditions in the site but also by the number and characteristics of species in the site.