Traffic Capacity of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Hydro Project based on Multistage Queuing Theory

摘要

Research on ship's traffic capacity of locks is an important elementary work in inland water navigation planning and the organization of ship's flow. In the Three Gorges-Gezhouba hydro project, for the short distance between the two locks, ship's arriving law of one of the locks can significantly affect the other one. Therefore the calculation of ship's traffic capacity of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba hydro project is different from the one of common channels. Queuing theory is applied to the research. A study on ship's arriving law is carried out based on the survey of traffic flow in the water area. Furthermore, with the influence of ship's flow between the two locks under consideration, a model of double-stage M/M/n queuing model is established; both theoretical calculation and computer simulation are carried out in the research, the elements of average queuing time, average number of clients in the waiting queue and busy server probability are achieved; and the calculation model of traffic capacity of locks is proposed based on these elements. The model has been checked with the actual data surveyed, the result show that the model is practical and reasonable. Finally, dispatching plan based on ship's traffic capacity is proposed.