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Combination Forecast Model Based on RBF Neural Network and its Application in Freight Volume Forecast

机译:基于RBF神经网络的组合预测模型及其在货运量预测中的应用

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Forecasting freight volume scientifically is very important to the decision making of transportation and economic development strategies. In the forecast of freight volume, it is hard to obtain the satisfactory results with the traditional individual econometric forecasting methods and models for its various relative factors. Compared with individual forecast methods, the combination forecast method can improve the precision and stability of forecast results, and it is widely used in practice. In order to achieve a more accurate forecast result for freight volume, after comparing the current methods and models for forecast and summarizing the basic idea of combined forecast, the paper provides the combination forecast model based on the RBF neural network. A fitting and forecast model based on the historical data of freight volume with various methods separately is established, and then the fitting and forecast results are mixed into the combination model for forecast by the RBF neural network. At last, a forecast example of freight volume in Fujian Province is presented, and the results prove that the model for forecasting freight volume is effective and feasible, and it has a good practical value.
机译:预测货运量科学对运输和经济发展战略的决策来说非常重要。在货运量预测中,难以获得令人满意的结果,具有传统的个人计量预测方法和模型的各种相对因素。与个别预测方法相比,组合预测方法可以提高预测结果的精度和稳定性,并在实践中广泛使用。为了实现货运量的更准确的预测结果,在比较预测的当前方法和模型以及总结组合预测的基本思想之后,本文提供了基于RBF神经网络的组合预测模型。建立了基于单独方法的货运量历史数据的拟合和预测模型,然后将拟合和预测结果混合到RBF神经网络预测的组合模型中。最后,提出了福建省货运量的预测例子,结果证明预测货运量的模型是有效和可行的,它具有良好的实用价值。

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