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Combination Forecast Model Based on RBF Neural Network and its Application in Freight Volume Forecast

机译:基于RBF神经网络的组合预测模型及其在货运量预测中的应用

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Forecasting freight volume scientifically is very important to the decision making of transportation and economic development strategies. In the forecast of freight volume, it is hard to obtain the satisfactory results with the traditional individual econometric forecasting methods and models for its various relative factors. Compared with individual forecast methods, the combination forecast method can improve the precision and stability of forecast results, and it is widely used in practice. In order to achieve a more accurate forecast result for freight volume, after comparing the current methods and models for forecast and summarizing the basic idea of combined forecast, the paper provides the combination forecast model based on the RBF neural network. A fitting and forecast model based on the historical data of freight volume with various methods separately is established, and then the fitting and forecast results are mixed into the combination model for forecast by the RBF neural network. At last, a forecast example of freight volume in Fujian Province is presented, and the results prove that the model for forecasting freight volume is effective and feasible, and it has a good practical value.
机译:科学地预测货运量对交通运输决策和经济发展战略至关重要。在货运量的预测中,传统的个体计量经济学预测方法和模型由于其各种相关因素而难以获得令人满意的结果。与单独的预测方法相比,组合预测方法可以提高预测结果的准确性和稳定性,在实践中得到了广泛的应用。为了获得更准确的货运量预测结果,在比较了当前的预测方法和模型并总结了组合预测的基本思想之后,本文提出了基于RBF神经网络的组合预测模型。建立了基于货运量历史数据的多种预测方法分别拟合拟合和预测的模型,然后将拟合结果与预测结果混合为RBF神经网络进行预测的组合模型。最后,以福建省货运量预测为例,结果表明该预测模型是有效可行的,具有良好的实用价值。

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