Runoff Forecasting in Future Climate Change Scenarios of the Yellow River Basin Based on the Water Balance Model

摘要

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is located in the arid region,water resources are great sensitive to the climate changes,because of the water scarcity and fragile environment.A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios which are defined by IPCC,and HadCM3,CSIRO30,INM and MRI climate models had been selected in this study to form the future climatic scenarios of the Yellow River Basin.The Yellow River Water Balance Model (YRWBM) hydrological model was built to forecast the future natural runoff and its temporal-spatial change,with the inputs of the future climatic scenarios.Forecasting results indicate that the runoff of the Yellow River shows decreases trend in the future.It will change-20.6％ ～-1.29％ in 2050,and-19.7％ ～ 8.06％ in 2t00 comparing with present situation.In spatial distribution,the precipitation and runoff are greatly reduced in main water yielding regions upper Lanzhou,and increased in other regions.In annual distribution,the runoff increase in winter and spring,and decrease in summer and autumn.