Global Climate Change Response Program: Development and Application of aPhysically Based Distributed Parameter Rainfall Runoff Model in the Gunnison River Basin

摘要

A physically based distributed parameter rainfall runoff model was developed forthe upper Gunnison River Basin in Western Colorado. The model was developed using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), running inside the Modular System (MMS) graphical framework. The model was used to perform global climate change analysis in the Gunnison River Basin. The rainfall runoff model predicts a decrease in streamflows of 5 percent. Sensitivity model runs were performed on an array of altered historical climate data. These model simulations show that streamflows change significantly as precipitation and temperature change.