Probabilistic Model of Under-Keel Clearance Assessment as a Practical Tool for Ship's Safety Determination in Existing and Designed Ports

摘要

The paper presents probabilistic model of under-keel clearance evaluation for ships approaching to the ports. The model enables to determine the distribution of under-keel clearance in several ships passages and to assess the probability of ships grounding accident during the port approach. The results of using this type of model could be used in risk assessment of ships entering to the ports, therefore it is possible to use probabilistic model in Harbour Master everyday decision making practice and also in ports' design. The paper is concerned with the analysis of under-keel clearance of ships based on real research by presenting a practical example of probabilistic model.