An Empirical Bayes Model to Assess Deer-Vehicle Crash Safety in Urban Areas in Iowa

摘要

Deer-vehicle crashes are a growing problem in Iowa. In 2008, deer-vehicle crashes represented12% of all crashes reported and included 9 fatalities and 442 injuries. These crashes areespecially problematic in urban areas of Iowa, where the prevalence of deer-vehicle crashes isbecoming a more visible issue. Quite a bit of research has been conducted on countermeasureaction that could help mitigate deer-vehicle crashes. However, little previous work has attemptedto model deer-vehicle crashes in urban areas using the two data sources available: deer carcasssalvage reports and deer-vehicle crash reports. The objective of this paper is to assess the safetyof roadway segments in three cities with long-running deer management programs using bothdeer-vehicle crash and deer carcass salvage data. The authors reconciled records to helpeliminate double counting and estimated count data models to examine deer-vehicle crashfrequency as a function of roadway and environmental factors. The count model estimates wereused in an empirical Bayes model to predict deer-vehicle crashes in the select urban areas ofIowa. This model can be used to help allocate safety funds to implement appropriate deer-vehiclecrash countermeasures in high-risk locations.