BIO-CLIMATIC MODELING OF THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF COASTAL WETLANDS IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, NORTH-EASTERN NSW AUSTRALIA

摘要

Climate change will have a profound impact on coastal ecosystems, particularly, wetland cover types. It is therefore important that such changes are predicted so that appropriate adaptations can be suggested. This study investigated the changes of spatial distribution of four coastal wetland plant species in response to potential climate change in northeastern NSW, Australia. The study used BIOCLIM, a bioclimatic analysis and prediction system modeling package to generate the climate profiles of the species. Multispectral Landsat TM images were used to delineate wetland classes and to extract the wetland species. Bioclim climate parameters generated using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and species climate profile were then used in BIOMAP to generate the predicted locations of the wetland species in response to mean annual temperature increase. Predicted locations were imported into GIS for mapping the potential spatial distribution of the wetland species. The study found that an increasing mean annual temperature would likely redistribute some of the wetland species such as Avicennia marina and Melaleuca quinquenervia southwards, in northeastern NSW. This information could be used to enhance wetland conservation.