POLICIES TO PROMOTE CARBON-LESS ENERGY SYSTEMS

摘要

Several studies have shown that very large amounts of zero-carbon-emitting energy resources ("carbon-less energy") must be deployed in the next few decades if humans are to grow in number and wealth, while avoiding a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO_2) concentrations in the atmosphere. One such study estimates that stabilizing CO_2 at 450 ppm would require that approximately 22 of the forecasted 30 terawatts (TW) of primary power demand in 2050 be from carbon-less energy resources. Despite the technical community's recognition of the magnitude of change required, there has been little discussion of the policies needed to pursue such a path among public and private sector officials whose actions will determine whether such a stabilization objective can or will be met.rnTwo issues have dominated the discussion that has occurred: what are the relative roles of "new" and "current" technologies in building a carbon-less energy system and what policies are appropriate to stimulate deployment of such technologies.rnThis paper contends first, that it is likely infeasible to deliver 22 TW of carbon-less power by 2050 by relying solely on "new" technologies. Given the lead-time associated with deploying large quantities of carbon-less energy, it will be necessary to pursue a strategy that combines two initiatives: first, expanded use of "current" technologies, such as energy efficiency, renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and biomass, and technologies that capture CO_2 from fossil-fueled stationary sources for geologic disposal and second, adoption of policies designed to develop and deploy "new" technologies.rnIn the policy arena, limited debate has centered on whether a regulatory program, such a cap and trade system, or increased financial support for carbon-less energy RD&D programs will be more effective. This paper argues that, at least in the U.S. context, political realities are likely to prevent either a pure regulatory approach or a pure advanced technology RD&D effort from being adopted and implemented at the requisite scale. While modest regulatory programs may well be adopted, the more ambitious programs needed to stimulate massive deployment of carbon-less energy resources are likely to be blocked by coalitions of industries that perceive themselves as losers under such programs. Similarly, absent the driver of a regulatory target, RD&D programs are not likely to attract adequate amounts of either public or private resources.rnA more successful strategy is likely to involve a hybrid program that combines a schedule of binding limits on global warming emissions over time with a major increase in financial support for "current" carbon-less energy technologies, including nearly commercial systems like carbon capture and storage for fossil energy facilities. Such a program could engage a broad coalition of support from a variety of interests. Environmental groups might be persuaded this approach will likely achieve larger reductions sooner than alternatives. Renewable energy and agricultural interests would likely support due to increased business opportunities. Fossil energy interests may support if they are convinced that such a program is needed to provide them with a viable business future. Finally, in many countries, deployment of carbon-less energy resources may reduce dependence on imported energy resources. Recognition of these "ancillary benefits" could lead to increased international cooperation to promote carbon-less energy. Carbon-less energy systems will benefit all countries by averting dangerous interference with the climate, they can provide domestic economic benefits, and they can help avoid a dangerous over-dependence on imported sources of energy.