Use of participatory scenario modelling as platforms in stakeholder dialogues

摘要

Water-related problems are characterized by complexities, uncertainties and conflicting interests, and there is no single "optimal" way to approach these "wicked" problems. Model-assisted participatory processes have been suggested as one way to meet these challenges. However, the use of models as scenario tools for local planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing environmental challenges is more often an exception than common practice. In order to assess future possibilities for successful use of participatory scenario modelling, experiences from two model-facilitated projects are presented and discussed. The participatory scenario modelling described in this paper implies modelling with people, as opposed to agent-based modelling which is based on modelling of' people's behaviour and its consequences. In the first project, a participatory model-assisted process was conducted to formulate a locally proposed remedy plan to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus loads in local lakes and the coastal zone. In the second project, a similar process was used to formulate local adaptation strategies to climate change impacts on water allocation, farming and the environment. Based on the experiences of these projects; recommendations are made as to how model-assisted participatory processes can best be organised and conducted. A key message is that modellers need to rethink their role as "solution providers" to become "process facilitators".