Risk Assessment Modeling for Urban Water Distribution Systems under the Effect of Land Subsidence

摘要

In consideration of a series of damages to water distribution systems caused by urban land subsidence,risk assessment modeling is essential for risk management in large cities.Firstly,based on the function catastrophe characteristic of the water supply network suffered by the land subsidence,the Catastrophe Theory was employed to analyze the Catastrophe mechanism,and a function catastrophe simulation model was established accordingly to get the vulnerability index of water distribution system.Secondly,according to risk theory,risk entropy model was used to analyze the risk of pipe network suffering the land subsidence with the disorder and uncertainty features.Finally,the water distribution system of Guangzhou city was taken to the risk assessment model to get the risk index utilizing the level of land subsidence identified by the dimensional analytical method.The results indicated the risk assessment model is practical to provide strategic decisions for the security upgrade of urban water distribution systems under the danger of land subsidence.