ASSESSING CARBON VALUES TO ACHIEVE STRONG POST KYOTO CO_2 REDUCTION TARGETS FOR FRANCE

摘要

Ambitious post Kyoto targets to reduce greenhouse gases emissions are needed to effectively address climate change and maintain the overall temperature increase within acceptable ranges. The last UNFCC summit helped to stress this point, but no reduction objectives were agreed upon. As next rounds of negotiations, envisaged in the final roadmap, may help to specify such targets, an important element is that, the EU as a whole and several member countries individually, have already announced strong unilateral commitments to reduce their emissions. rnFrance, for instance, has decided on a 75% reduction of its GHG emissions by 2050. This ambitious goal was investigated in 2007 by a dedicated Energy Commission and one of the outcomes of this process was that: without radical technology changes, but with voluntary actions on the demands of useful energy services, a division by 2 of energy related CO_2 emissions could be achieved. Yet, understanding what these targets mean in terms of carbon values (and the evolution of those values) in the long run is an important element for a complete analysis of the reduction strategy. rnThis paper addresses the question of carbon value for France in the long term in two ways: 1.as abatement levels achieved over the period under different structures of CO_2 taxes specified exogenously 2.as the marginal cost of CO_2 given by the dual value of an explicitly specified carbon constraint. In the following, energy related CO_2 emissions, corresponding carbon values and energy system costs are compared for eight different scenarios. The study is based on the technology rich TIMES-France model developed for France and the modelling horizon reaches from 2000 to 2050.