Study of railway passenger volume forecast based on grey forecasting model

摘要

Railway passenger volume forecast is an important basis of passenger traffic organization, it is also the base to set railway market policies of passenger transportation. The article establishes on the basis of previous studies. After analysis the data of railway passenger volume in recent years, the author chooses the Grey Model GM (1, 1) to forecast the trend of development of railway passenger volume in near three years. At the same time, the model passed average relative check, correlative check, and after-test residue check. Through the above check proved the validity of the GM (1, 1). Grey Model GM (1, 1) can be applied to short-term forecast of railway passenger volume. The model is based on a kind of relatively smooth index curve to fit the trend, it is suitable for time series analysis, but it is difficult to reflect the real volatility in the sequence of data. So the paper should consider more kinds of prediction model in further studies, instead of using single forecast model. It can reduce the error of prediction through using combination models.