Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012#x2013;2025 impact on the battery business

摘要

The main goal of this survey [1] is to forecast the worldwide Hybrid Vehicle (HEV), Plug-in (PHEV) & Electric Vehicle (EV) market and its impact on the Battery Business (Lead acid, NiMH and Lithium ion batteries). In 8 years, from 2004 to 2012, the Hybrid Vehicle market increased from 165 000 to more than 1.5 million vehicles sold and stop/start car sales achieved 9 Million in 2012 [2]. With the financial and economic crisis, what will be the Car supplier's strategy? Will stop/start applications thanks to advanced lead acid batteries succeed? Some analysts forecasted that the market for stop/start vehicles will increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 32% between 2011 and 2020, reaching a total market of 37 million vehicles sold annually by the end of the forecast period [3]. What will be the technology? Lead acid, super-capacitors, ultra-batteries, advanced flooded batteries, AGM? What will be the market for Micro-Hybrid or HEV batteries in 2015 & 2020? Will the Li-ion battery with a lower price cathode succeed? What will be the price level to compete with NiMH technology? Will the strategy of HEV battery suppliers be the same than electronic device battery suppliers? Can European or US battery players have an opportunity in the HEV battery market? How will Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Renault, Peugeot, Volkswagen or BMW manage their battery needs if there are no battery suppliers in the US & in Europe?