An Empirical Analysis on Correlations Between RMB Appreciation, Capital flows and Housing Price

摘要

By establishing EGARCH model, the paper first gets the measure of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation, then adopts the methods of co-integration test. Granger Causality to study the effectiveness of the fluctuation of RMB Exchange Rate and capital flows. The results show that the RMB appreciations has a positive effect on the housing price and is the Granger Causality of the housing price; the enlargement of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation does control the rise in housing prices; the international capital which flows into the real estate market also is the cause of the rising housing price. Therefore, making the RMB appreciation and the inflow of foreign capital under control and then expanding the fluctuation of exchange rate properly are favorable to keep China's housing price stability.