Forecasting petroleum drilling outcomes for firms of different sizes operating in the gulf of mexico OCS region

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to forecast petroleum drilling activity and outcomes for firms of differrent sizes using a model of hydrocarbon reseve additions developed for the Gulf of Mexico OCS region. Our empirical results provide evidence of statistically significant diminishing returns on drilling effectiveness with the growing maturity of the OCS region, but are inconclusive, statistically, as to whether technological change boosts drilling effectiveness differently among firms of different sizes. The response of drilling to economic incentives is inelastic among the independents but nearly unitary-elastic for the majors. Overall, there is not persuastive evidence to suggest a less aggessive drilling pace or less efficient hydrocarbon resource development on the Gulf OCS because of an incrasing role of independents in the region.