摘要:
家庭能源消费在我国碳减排战略中的地位日益突出,但作为改善室内外大气污染和人群健康的重要抓手,其全面评估和系统对策却仍十分缺乏.为此,本文以PM2.50、SO2和NO、这3种决定雾霾形成的关键污染物为研究对象,建立1992-2014年我国城乡居民生活部门的排放清单.在此基础上利用对数平均迪氏分解(LMDI)模型分别对全国排放总量的动态变化和各省人均排放的空间差异进行驱动因素分析,从家庭(收入、消费意愿和能耗开支)、社会(能源价格和城市化率)和技术(排放因子)不同层面识别居民生活用能影响大气污染物排放的短板所在.结果显示:①22年间PM2.5的减排量有限,SO2和NOx的排放量分别增加12.5%和122.7%.城市居民的人均排放降幅明显,而农村居民2012年3种污染物人均排放为前者的1.2-8.2倍,仍面临很高的暴露风险.②人均排放高值区集中在华北和东北,北京、四川、重庆、江苏和福建的农村排放突出,而新疆和黑龙江的城市SO2和NOx排放水平高于农村,表现出较明显的城乡差异.③家庭收入和能源平均价格分别是排放的最主要正向和负向驱动力,人口的增排作用不断下降而城市化率和排放因子的减排效应日益明显.城市生活排放的价格弹性相较于农村排放更明显,而后者对收入变化更敏感.④城乡协同减排需要厘清多污染物的减排侧重点并体现区域特征.本文根据决定排放空间差异的主导因素将各省农村和城市各自划分为清洁均衡型、能源价格主导型和高污染型等6种类型,并从优化能源消费结构和生活用能价格体系、提高用能效率和农民收入等多方面提出针对性减排建议.%Residential energy consumption is holding an increasingly clear strategic position in China's carbon reduction roadmap.However,comprehensive evaluation and systematic solutions for household sector as an important grasp on improving air quality and human health are still lacking.This paper established urban and rural residential emission inventories for three critical air pollutants (PM2.5,SO2and NOx) in forming haze based on data during 1992-2012.And then it analyzed driving factors for total emission dynamics on country level and per capita emission variations on provincial level respectively through LMDI model decomposition.In this way,negative influences of residential energy consumption on air quality wered etected in terms of household,social and technological characteristics.The result showed that first,the PM2.5 emission was reduced by limited amount during research period,and SO2 and NOx emission were increased by 18.5% and 140.2% respectively.Per capita emission of urban residents showed evident reduction,and per capita emission of rural residents was still 1.2-8.2 times of urban emission,leading to considerable exposure risk.Second,high emission intensity areas were mainly located in North and Northeast China.Some provinces showed relatively greater urban-rural discrepancies.For instance,rural emission levels of Beijing,Sichuan,Chongqing,Jiangsu and Fujian were much higher than emissions of their urban residents,while the reverse was true for Xinjiang and Heilongjiang for SO2 and NOx emissions.Third,the most dominant positive and negative factors in driving residential pollutions are household income and average energy price,while the effect of population on emission promotion is weakening,and the reduction effects of urbanization and emission factor are becoming more obvious.Besides,it is estimated that price elasticity of urban emission is greater compared to rural emission,while the latter is more sensitive to income variation.Fourth,in order to improve residential emissions reduction of multiple pollutants for both urban and rural households,it is necessary to take regional differences of energy use and emission into account.Based on contributions of main factors to geographical emission difference,urban and rural parts of 30 provinces were divided into 6 categories respectively,which help to form targeted and effective pollution control policies on household perspective in terms of energy structure and price optimization,energy use efficiency and living standard improvement.