摘要：
为了实现碳交易与林业碳汇之间的协同发展,本文以上海为例,通过可计算一般均衡模型进行了定量研究.研究发现,对于开始步入后工业化时代的地区,减排目标要从强度限制向总量控制过渡,避免碳交易配额总量过于宽松,确保碳交易体系能够有效运行,进而获得经济与环境上的“双重红利”.碳交易本身无法对林业产生促进作用,而抵消机制的引入使得碳交易中的部分资金流向林业,从而补贴了造林增汇.目前来看,碳交易试点集中在大型城市,这些地区自身并不一定拥有良好的林业发展条件,所以增汇不宜局限于本地区,这就要求地方政府减少抵消机制中的区域限制,将补偿作用外溢出去,鼓励有条件的地区更多地开展造林增汇.碳交易与林业碳汇的协调发展,有赖于抵消比例与配额有偿分配比例的合理设置.在碳交易发展初期,有偿比例应控制在较低幅度,以免碳价格过低,从而无法对林业产生足够补贴.同时也应适度控制抵消比例,一方面提高CCER的准入门槛,避免低质量项目入市;另一方面,通过控制履约量来维持价格稳定,切实发挥生态补偿作用.%In order to realize the cooperative development of permits trading and forestry carbon sink,the paper takes Shanghai as an example and conducts a quantitative study with the computable general equilibrium model.For the areas starting to enter into the post-industrial era,the emission abatement target should be gradually adjusted from intensity limit to total amount control.Otherwise,the quota amount would be too loose to form a constraint,while the trading system could not work well to achieve the double dividend of less emission and more GDP.The permits trading could not promote the forestry industry by itself,but the involvement of offset mechanism makes the funds flow to it,thereby subsidizing sink enhancement.Currently,trading pilots concentrated in huge cities usually with poor conditions for forestry development,so the carbon sink growth should not be limited to the local area,and regional restriction should be removed to allow the ecological compensation spill over to the other provinces,encouraging the qualified areas to carry out afforestation.Otherwise,the coordinated development of carbon trading and forestry carbon sequestration depends on the reasonable arrangements of offer proportion and paid ratio of initial quota.In the early stages,paid ratio should be controlled at a lower level to guarantee high carbon price and enough subsidy for forestry.And offset proportion need to be set appropriately,not only to improve the access threshold,avoiding low quality projects,but also to maintain price stability,ensuring the returns of investors.
