Method for performing runoff forecast under influence of upstream reservoir group by using forecast errors

摘要

Disclosed in the present invention is a method for performing runoff forecast under the influence of an upstream reservoir group by using forecast errors, comprising: collecting data; according to the collected data, establishing an influenced storage volume estimation model by using a known hydrological model and a KNN model; driving the hydrological model with reference to the collected data to predict a future runoff volume; obtaining a forecast error of a previous period of time; according to the forecast error of the previous period of time, obtaining a future influenced storage volume estimation value with reference to the influenced storage volume estimation model; and adding the future runoff volume and the future influenced storage volume estimation value to obtain a runoff forecast value in a future period of time. The advantages are: the forecast error of the previous period of time can indirectly reflects a water storage and drainage rule of a reservoir group, and a correlation between forecast errors and runoff change caused by water storage and drainage of reservoirs is established, thereby correcting a forecast result of an influenced storage volume estimation model, thus achieving the purpose of performing runoff forecast under the influence of the reservoir group without directly obtaining a water storage and drainage plan of the upstream reservoir group.