Method for computer-aided simulation of e.g. power output value, of integrated gasification combined cycle-system, involves stimulating value for preset operating time period based on probability distribution for reliability measure

摘要

The method involves stimulating a failure occurrence and a failure time for each component (10-12) of respective modules in a pre-determined operating time period using an exponential probability distribution for a failure time point of the components, and another probability distribution for duration of the failure of the components. A third probability distribution for a reliability measure of the respective modules is determined. An operating parameter of a technical system is stimulated for a pre-determined operating time period based on the third probability distribution. The failure occurrence is stimulated using a monte-carlo-simulation. The modules comprise of coal mills, headers and gasifiers. An independent claim is also included for a computer-program product with program codes for implementing the method for computer-aided simulation of the operating parameter of the technical system.