HYBRID SEASONAL PREDICTION OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

摘要

A hybrid method for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the western north pacific is provided. A hybrid method for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the western north pacific of the present invention comprises: (a) a step of selecting predictive indicators by analyzing correlation among accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy (ACE), sea surface temperature (SST), and wind shear and by using statistical relationship; (b) a step of building up and analyzing a statistical model using the ACE and predictive indicators; and (c) a step of predicting an ACE using a multiple regression model with the predictive variables for the rest years.