POST-EVALUATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL METHOD OF POWER TRANSMISSION ENGINEERING COST

摘要

A VAR-based post-evaluation and risk management and control method is disclosed herein. The power transmission engineering cost is broken down sub-item costs, and the stochastic behavior of sub-item costs is simulated by normal distribution, to determine the VaR of sub-item cost at a confidence, then the VaR and ratio of mean of sub-item costs are used as the weights of sub-item cost, to establish the post-evaluation model of sub-item cost, then according to the ratio of sub-item cost among total cost, a contribution degree index is established, and the main sub-item costs are screened according to the sequence of contribution degree index; then based on this, considering the constraint of risk rate interval and aiming at controlling the main sub-item cost within the allowable risk interval, a stochastic linear programming model is established; finally, Monte Carlo method is used to sample and simulate the random factors to solve the stochastic linear programming problem. The method provided herein can effectively perform evaluation on the risk of cost fluctuation, to achieve control over the cost within a risk interval.