STATISTICAL ESTIMATION METHOD OF A MULTIFACTOR TREND OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF THE OCCURRENCE OF A STUDIED UNDESIRED EVENT IN COHORT STUDY

摘要

FIELD: data processing.;SUBSTANCE: invention relates to the field of statistical research of large amounts of individual data for administrative, commercial, financial, managerial, supervisory and predictive purposes. Essence of a method consists in applying the maximum likelihood method inherent in the method and functionality of the estimation of logistic regression; in addition, unlike logistic regression, a model for linking a probability indicator with risk factors is generated by a neural network itself in the process of its optimal adjustment and is not postulated by an analyst before the research is started.;EFFECT: technical result is the implementation of a flexible estimation method of the main trends of probabilistic indicators of cohort risk analysis on the factors studied, taking into account the statistical significance of the findings and the possibility of selecting competing hypotheses (regression models), taking into account an aprior information.;1 cl, 1 dwg