prediction of national crop yield during planting season using meteorological indices

摘要

This is a method for determining national crop yields during the planting season which comprises receiving agricultural data points for specific geolocations. calculating weather index values, which represent crop stress, from agricultural data records and generates a series of aggregated weather index data, where each series of aggregated weather index data contains weather index values for a specific weather index . Select representative resources from the aggregate weather index data series and create covariate matrices for each geographic area. calculate crop yield for specific geographic area using linear regression in the covariate matrix for specific geographic areas using parameters calculated based on an average, an error term, and a variance parameter based on a coefficient specific deviation from geographical area. To determine the national crop yield for the specific year by calculating the national crop yield from the sum of the crop yields for the nationally adjusted specific geographical areas using national yield adjustment instructions.