MIGRATION TENDENCY ESTIMATION DEVICE, MIGRATION TENDENCY ESTIMATION METHOD, AND PROGRAM

摘要

The present invention enables estimating the probability of migration and the number of people migrating with high accuracy and a small amount of calculation even when migrations to areas other than adjacent areas are taken into account. For each of a plurality of areas, a parameter estimation unit 120 estimates: a first parameter indicative of ease of departure from the area to another area; a second parameter indicative of easiness for people to gather in the area; a third parameter indicative of an influence of the distance between areas on the probability of migration; and the number of people migrating from each of the plurality of areas to another area, on the basis of demographic information including information of the population in the area over time during the day. A migration probability calculation unit 170 calculates, for each of the plurality of areas, a probability of migration from the area to another area on the basis of the first parameter, second parameter, and third parameter.