Prediction method for alpine vegetation in a high-altitude permafrost region

摘要

The invention discloses a prediction method for alpine vegetation in high—altitude permafrost regions, and relates to the field of geography. The method includes the steps that the survey data of characteristics of the vegetation in the permafrost region of Tibetan Plateau is obtained; bio—climatic parameters are obtained; according to an NDVI data set, NDVI parameters are obtained; according to a digital elevation model (DEM), the slope, the slope direction and the profile curvature at each grid pixel element point in the permafrost region of Tibetan Plateau are obtained; the elevations, the slopes, the slope directions and the profile curvatures are used as topography parameters; the parameters with the correlation coefficients larger than 0.8 are selected in the bio—climatic parameters, the NDVI parameters and the topography parameters through a principal component analysis method, and vegetation classification parameters are obtained; according to the survey data of the characteristics of the vegetation, the vegetation classification parameters, climate scenarios data and a climatic system mode, the types of the vegetation in the permafrost region of Tibetan Plateau are obtained through a decision tree classification method. By means of the method, the type distribution prediction, in the mode of ten types of ten categories of climatic systems and four types of climate scenarios in 2050 and 2070, of the vegetation in the permafrost region of Tibetan Plateau can be achieved.