CF-GERT Method for Risk Evaluation in New Product Research and Development

摘要

#$%^&*AU2020100146A420200227.pdf#####Abstract The present invention discloses a CF-GERT method for risk evaluation in new product research and development, which comprises the following steps: CF-GERT network construction of a new product research and development project, CF-GERT model solution, inverse derivation of cumulative probability density function from equivalent characteristic function, progress risk measurement of new product development project, and analysis of progress risk sensitive nodes of new product development project. According to the method of the present invention, the CF-GERT technology for the progress risk evaluation in the new product research and development project is developed by using the characteristic function instead of the common moment generating function in GERT. The development process mainly includes the following steps: designing a CF-GERT solving algorithm to solve the equivalent characteristic function; transforming the equivalent characteristic function into the cumulative distribution function by using a transformation formula or a BohmanH approximation equation; and measuring the progress risk of the new product research and development project from the two dimensions of risk occurrence probability and penalty cost, and identifying the progress risk sensitive nodes of the new product research and development project to evaluate the risk of new product development and minimize the risk.1/1 constructng a CF-GERTnetwork of a new product researchand development project calculating an equivalent charactelstlc function udgng if it is absolutely integrable Ye ye transformation No BohmanH approximate equation No Yes clatng a cumulative distribution calculating a progress risk according to the formula In Step 4 performing elasticity analysis to fidsenstive nodes end Fig.1