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Including Ramping Constraints in the Electric Capacity Expansion Model

机译:在电力扩展模型中包括坡道约束

摘要

In the long term electricity capacity expansion problem, operators attempt to make decisions years ahead of time on what generator types to invest in in order to meet future electricity needs. In such a model an approximate electricity demand forecast is used. Furthermore, short term generation variables such as ramping capabilities are ignored and reserved for short term planning models. Such simplified long term models have historically yielded good results due to the straightforward nature of operational details that are mainly related to fairly predictable demand patterns. With the increasing penetration of less predictable renewable energy sources however, operators of a system are expected to need to respond to added variability on the supply side of the system. Generators within a system will also need to have the ability to meet such variability and will potentially require higher ramping capabilities in order to respond to the intermittency of renewable energy sources.The work in this thesis illustrates that capturing short term constraints, such as the ramping constraints originally found in unit commitment models, in the long term capacity expansion model may result in a more realistic power output and capacity mix when planning future generation investments. Furthermore, a new set of constraints are also added to the model in an attempt to maintain some chronology that is required when dealing with the short term ramping constraints. Data from the Ontario Long Term Energy Plan (LTEP) and the Integrated Power System Plan (IPSP) is used for testing. In comparison with the original capacity expansion model, it is found that the inclusion of the ramping constraints yields a different investment plan that is concluded to be more realistic.
机译:在长期的电容量扩展问题中,运营商试图提前数年做出决定,决定投资哪种发电机类型,以满足未来的电力需求。在这样的模型中,使用了近似的电力需求预测。此外,诸如生成能力之类的短期生成变量将被忽略,并保留用于短期规划模型。由于操作细节的直接性质(主要与相当可预测的需求模式有关),这种简化的长期模型历来产生了良好的结果。然而,随着难以预测的可再生能源的普及,系统的运营商需要对系统供应方面的更多变化做出响应。系统中的发电机还需要具有满足这种可变性的能力,并且可能需要更高的缓变能力才能对可再生能源的间歇性做出响应。本文的工作表明,捕获短期约束(例如缓变)在计划未来发电投资时,长期的容量扩展模型可能会在单位承诺模型中最初发现一些约束,但长期的容量扩展模型可能会导致更为实际的功率输出和容量组合。此外,还将一组新的约束条件添加到模型中,以尝试维护在应对短期倾斜约束条件时所需的某些时间顺序。来自安大略省长期能源计划(LTEP)和综合电力系统计划(IPSP)的数据用于测试。与原始的容量扩展模型相比,发现增加限制因素会产生不同的投资计划,因此得出的结论更为现实。

著录项

  • 作者

    Sleiman Sarah;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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