Electric vehicles and renewable energy in the transport sector - energy system consequences. Main focus: Battery electric vehicles and hydrogen based fuel cell vehicles

摘要

The aim of the project is to analyse energy, environmental and economic aspects of integrating electric vehicles in the future Danish energy system. Consequences of large-scale utilisation of electric vehicles are analysed. The aim is furthermore toillustrate the potential synergistic interplay between the utilisation of electric vehicles and large-scale utilisation of fluctuating renewable energy resources, such as wind power. Economic aspects for electric vehicles interacting with a liberalisedelectricity market are analysed. The project focuses on battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles based on hydrogen. Based on assumptions on the future technical development for battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles on hydrogen, and forthe conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, scenarios are set up to reflect expected options for the long-term development of road transport vehicles. Focus is put on the Danish fleet of passenger cars and delivery vans. The scenario analysisincludes assumptions on market potential developments and market penetration for the alternative vehicles. Vehicle replacement rates in the Danish transport fleet and the size of fleet development are based on data from The Danish Road Directorate. Theelectricity supply system development assumed is based on the Danish energy plan, Energy 21, The Plan scenario. The time horizon of the analysis is year 2030. Results from the scenario analysis include the time scales involved for the potentialtransition towards electricity based vehicles, the fleet composition development, the associated developments in transport fuel consumption and fuel substitution, and the potential CO2-emission reduction achievable in the overall transport and powersupply system. Detailed model simulations, on an hourly basis, have furthermore been carried out for year 2005 that address potential electricity purchase options for electric vehicles in the context of a liberalised electricity market. The baselineelectricity market considered comprises a spot market and a balance market. The structure chosen for the baseline spot market is close to the structure of the Nord Pool electricity market, and the structure of the balance or regulatory market is close tothe Norwegian model.